Because the house always seems to win, looking at how the odds have been set for the Mountaineers can serve as an interesting projection for the season ahead.
The Big 12 Preseason Poll that was released just over a month ago began to paint a picture of the upcoming football season. The newcomer Utah Utes were selected as the Big 12 favorites over both Kansas State and Oklahoma State, with all three schools receiving double-digit first place votes. While the top teams seem clear, it’s the middle of the pack where West Virginia falls. The Mountaineers placed seventh, being listed behind Iowa State and ahead of UCF and Texas Tech. While the media representatives made a compelling list, how does it compare to the odds available to wager on?
Using Fanduel.com as our sports book of reference, the mountaintop looks relatively similar. Utah is the favorite to win the Big 12 Conference with +310 odds, followed by Kansas State at +400. However, third place is tied between Oklahoma State and UCF, with both schools being given +800 odds. This is especially intriguing because the Cowboys were given 14 first place votes, while the Knights ranked eighth on the preseason poll.
One can speculate what odds-makers see in these teams, but West Virginia’s placement is somewhat consistent. The Mountaineers currently hold the eighth best odds to win the Big 12 at +1600, tied with Texas Tech. While these odds can and will change, they paint a picture of West Virginia being right in the middle of the Big 12 Conference.
Looking towards the near future, the Mountaineers are currently 10.5 point underdogs to Penn State for their first game of the season. However, West Virginia is favored by 5.5 points against the Pittsburgh Panthers. No other odds for any individual games have been released, as it can be assumed to be too early for a game-by-game projection.
Despite that, there are already odds posted for how West Virginia could end the season. The Mountaineers have +500 odds to finish with ten or more wins, and +1300 odds to make the College Football Playoff. This implies that there’s only about a 7.14% chance of West Virginia making the 12-team tournament and competing for a National Championship. The odds for some old gold and blue confetti raining down at Mercedes-Benz Stadium are extremely improbable, at +30000 odds. This 0.33% chance is shared by six other Big 12 schools, including Arizona, TCU, Iowa State, Colorado, UCF and Texas Tech. But never say never, right?
