Three games to go in the regular season and West Virginia is in the thick of the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation.
The analytics and computers love West Virginia and that definitely helps the Mountaineers heading into a brutal final stretch. Last week, WVU went 1-2 in a three-game stretch which included road games against two teams ranked inside the top-nine, and all three games against teams ranked inside the top-11.
West Virginia is facing a similar stretch to end the regular season, facing No. 3 Kansas on the road, No. 23 Iowa State on the road and No. 14 Kansas State at home. Those teams are ranked sixth, 18th, and 19th in the NET respectively.
Bart Tovik — an NCAA men’s basketball analytics website — says the Mountaineers currently have a 64.9% chance to make it to the NCAA Tournament. The average seed line for the Mountaineers from Bart Tovik is a nine-seed (8.7).
Bart Tovik also offers scenarios and percentages associated with those scenarios to make the NCAA Tournament. Below, we look at those scenarios and identify the percent chances the Mountaineers have to then make the tournament.
Scenario 1: Lose to Kansas, Lose to Iowa State, Beat Kansas State, Win first game in Big 12 Tournament vs Texas Tech
This scenario seems probably the most likely for West Virginia. Lose the two road games, protect home court, and then defeat Texas Tech in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. This scenario would have West Virginia playing five total games and going 2-3 during those games. If this happened, the Mountaineers would have a 55.8 percent chance at making the tournament and be a ‘last four in’ team.
Scenario 2: Lose to Kansas, Lose to Iowa State, Beat Kansas State, Lose to Texas Tech in Big 12 Tournament
This scenario would be almost nightmarish for the Mountaineers. This would have the Mountaineers on the outside of the tournament looking in as one of the ‘first four out.’ This scenario gives WVU just a 19.1% chance to make the tournament, a 48.2 percent change from where they stand now.
Scenario 3: Lose to Kansas, Beat Iowa State, Beat Kansas State, Lose to Texas Tech in Big 12 Tournament
If WVU is going to win one of the two road games, it almost seems as if it will come against Iowa State. This scenario of going 2-2, and winning on the road, would almost certainly put West Virginia in the field. This scenario makes WVU a nine-seed, with an 83.9 percent chance to make the dance.
Scenario 4: Lost rest of regular season games, beat Texas Tech in Big 12 Tournament
Although this scenario doesn’t seem ideal, it is more ideal than just winning one home game. This scenario puts West Virginia as one of the ‘last four in’ with an 55.8 percent chance at the tournament.
Scenario 5: Lose Out
Losing out leaves WVU at a 1.1 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament. This would leave WVU as the 12th team left out of the NCAA Tournament.
Scenario 6: Win Out and lose in second round of Big 12 Tournament
If somehow WVU wins at Allen Fieldhouse, wins at the Hilton Coliseum, and then wins at home against Kansas State, before going to the Big 12 Tournament and winning in the first round against Texas Tech, the Mountaineers would be a six-seed. Although this scenario is very unlikely, it could happen. The dream scenario of WVU winning out and winning the Big 12 Tournament, would put the Mountaineers as a 4-seed come selection Sunday.
What this shows is it is important WVU wins against Kansas State, but it seems more important WVU wins away from home. Somehow steal a game this weekend and you’re probably in. Win your first game in Kansas City, also probably in. Three games left in the regular season, and at least four overall, but right now it appears it won’t be a pleasant waiting game on selection Sunday for Mountaineer fans.
