West Virginia’s men’s basketball team has played 10 games so far this season and currently sits at 8-2. While still early in the season, computer rankings like this West Virginia team and they also like West Virginia’s chances come Big 12 play.
Arguably West Virginia’s best win came this past Saturday when the Mountaineers defeated UAB 81-70. The win over UAB was West Virginia’s third ‘Quad 2’ win this season, and there will be plenty of opportunities for West Virginia to improve upon that number.
West Virginia has two more games until conference play, both games considered ‘Quad 4’ opponents. The system of quads goes 1-4, with the first quad being the highest tier of win, and the fourth quad being the lowest tier of win. Come March, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will evaluate teams resumes as they select who is in and who is out of the NCAA Tournament.
Through 10 games, all of the numbers which the selection committee looks at favor the Mountaineers.
As of Tuesday morning, West Virginia is ranked No. 9 in the NET — also known as the NCAA Evaluation Tool. The NET is a computer based ranking system looking at teams’ team value index and and adjusted net efficiency rating.
The team value index takes into account who you beat and where you play them and rewards teams for wins. The adjusted net efficiency rating is a metric accounting for strength of opponent and games played.
West Virginia is ranked ninth in the NET, while Purdue (who West Virginia lost to) is ranked third, and Kansas (who West Virginia still has to play twice) is ranked seventh.
The Mountaineers are also ranked 23rd by KenPom, again showing West Virginia is well-liked by computer system rankings.
As it stands, the Mountaineers are 0-2 in Quad 1 games, 3-0 in Quad 2 games, 2-0 in Quad 3, and 3-0 in Quad 4.
For comparison, last season’s West Virginia team went 3-13 in Quad 1 games, 4-3 in Quad 2 games and had a final NET ranking of 73.
Going forward, West Virginia has 21 guaranteed games remaining on their schedule. Out of those 21, only four of them fall outside of being considered a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game.
In addition, KenPom gives West Virginia at least a 50% chance to win 14 of their 21 remaining games.
While West Virginia will look to build upon their strong start to the season, they are going to have to capitalize in Quad 1 wins.
Over the past four seasons, West Virginia has played a combined 50 games. In those 50 games, West Virginia is 14-36, with their best season being 2020-2021, when they went 5-5 in Quad 1 games.
Out of West Virginia’s 10 remaining Quad 1 games, KenPom projects West Virginia will go 3-7 in those games. However, out of those seven losses, the average margin of defeat is only projected at 3.1 points, meaning West Virginia could very easily win some of those games.
If KenPom’s projections hold true, West Virginia will finish 3-9 in Quad 1 games, while they would go 6-1 in their seven remaining Quad 2 games according to KenPom.
Safe to say, West Virginia has ample opportunities ahead of them. Continuing to take care of business on your home floor, while stealing a game or two on the road in Big 12 play can only help this group that the computer rankings like and that is only getting better each game.
Photo by Aaron Parker, Blue Gold Sports
