With a revamped offense, and the return of multiple key contributors on the defensive side of the ball, the ceiling for West Virginia’s 2022 season is high. But how high is too high, and how realistic should expectations be.
Since 2018, West Virginia has taken a step back. Amidst a coaching change, then a global pandemic which impacted recruiting, things have not been easy for the Mountaineers. Neal Brown took over the head coaching job in 2019, and in his first three seasons he has gone 17-18. Brown has mortgaged his future on future recruiting classes and the fact that this offseason was a transformational one for the Mountaineers.
Comparing this season’s roster to last is a tall task for the Mountaineers. West Virginia has 33 new players from their 2021 squad. That includes a new quarterback, a relatively new secondary, and a new approach on offense. The Mountaineers coaching staff also went through a transformation of sorts with the addition of Graham Harrell as their new offensive coordinator.
It is safe to say, West Virginia’s previous offensive philosophy of shortening games and running the ball has been tossed out the window. Harrell comes from the air raid coaching tree, and although he will still run the ball, spreading teams out and throwing the ball is Harrell’s specialty.
Last season, West Virginia’s offense wasn’t great. The Mountaineers ranked 8th in the Big 12 in points per game, while also ranking 8th in offensive efficiency. If you look at where USC’s offense ranked in the Pac 12 last season, it was a lot better. Under Harrell, their offense was 5th in points per game in the Pac 12and led the conference with 298 passing yards per game.
The blueprint is there and with that comes raised expectations. Add in your starting quarterback is a former five-star recruit who played for the eventual National Champion Georgia Bulldogs last season and that adds all the more reason to be hopeful.
West Virginia’s Gauntlet
West Virginia’s schedule is not easy. The Mountaineers are only one of two Power Five teams to have 11 of their 12 games come against other Power Five opponents. (Colorado) In addition, the first month of the season does West Virginia no favors.
The Mountaineers open on the road against a rival they have not played since 2011 in No. 17 Pitt. They then return home for a Big 12 game against Kansas, before hosting FCS foe Towson. The Mountaineers then head back on the road for another rivalry game against Virginia Tech, and then travel to Austin, Texas, to face the Longhorns, who could be one of the best teams in the Big 12.
Playing five games in 31 days is no easy task, especially for a team who has a quarterback with a long history of being injury prone. In order for the Mountaineers to have success this season, it is vital for Daniels to stay on the field.
Escaping this stretch at 3-2 would be a win for the Mountaineers, 4-1 probably best-case scenario.
Following their trip to Texas, it is a 12-day break for West Virginia, before hosting the Big 12 Champion Baylor Bears on a Thursday night. The No. 10 ranked Bears are looking to win back-to-back Big 12 Championships, and beat West Virginia for the third time in four years.
More than likely, the Mountaineers will be sitting at 3-3 or 4-2 through their first six games. Beating Baylor is a tall task, although at home on a Thursday night, anything could happen. In comparison, last season the Mountaineers’ first six games had them sitting at 2-4, which could easily have been a 1-5.
Following Baylor, the Mountaineers travel to face Texas Tech — a team they have not beaten since 2018. Then, for only the second time in 42 days West Virginia returns home to Milan Puskar Stadium as they face TCU to close out the month of October.
West Virginia could enter the month of November either bowl eligible or on the cusp — both scenarios would be a welcoming site.
Following TCU, the Mountaineers travel to face Iowa State. The Mountaineers catch somewhat of a break here, as this game is sandwiched between the Cyclones having to face Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Iowa State has had West Virginia’s number as of late, beating the Mountaineers in three of their last four meetings.
At this point of the year, the Mountaineers could hold six or seven wins, when they would turn their attention to Oklahoma.
If West Virginia is sitting at seven wins at this point in the season, they are clearly in the Big 12 Championship conversation. What better way to raise those expectations if you are the Mountaineers than to beat the one team you have failed to beat since joining the Big 12 — Oklahoma.
The Sooners travel to Morgantown for what could be the final time as members of the Big 12. No. 9 Oklahoma has a new quarterback and a new head coach, two things which could be a positive for West Virginia.
Following Oklahoma is the final home game of the season for the Mountaineers against Kansas State. The Wildcats are coming off a season in which they won seven games, with three of those games being decided by one possession.
The Mountaineers close their regular season slate with a game that will likely hold Big 12 Championship implications in one way or another. The Mountaineers will travel to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to face Oklahoma State on Nov. 26. West Virginia is due for a win against the Cowboys, having not beaten them since all the way back in 2014. Oklahoma State enters the year ranked 12th in the country, and don’t expect the Cowboys to see too big a drop off from last season.
By win-loss records from last year, West Virginia has the 25th hardest schedule in the game this year. Only three Big 12 teams have harder schedules. (Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas)
Realistic Expectations
If everything goes West Virginia’s way and they are able to beat Pitt on Thursday night, the outlook of 2022 changes. Beating Pitt would most likely propel the Mountaineers to a 4-0 start heading into Texas. Steal a game or two in the month of October and then you are looking at a four game stretch in November where the Mountaineers could be playing for a birth in the Big 12 title game.
Realistically speaking however, this team probably finishes with seven or eight wins. Splitting the two rivalry games in September is a win I think if you are Neal Brown. Beating either Baylor or Oklahoma at home is also a steal. Winning on the road has been hard for this team the past few years and trips to Ames and Stillwater in November do not do the Mountaineers any favors.
Beating Kansas, Towson, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, and Kansas State is not too far-fetched for this team. However, losing on the road to Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, and continuing your streak of losses to Oklahoma isn’t out of the picture either.
Players to Watch
Obviously, the quarterback position will be something to watch for the Mountaineers. Having Daniels stay healthy is imperative to this team’s success. Another area to look out for is the secondary for the Mountaineers. With a plethora of FCS transfers on the back end, that college experience shouldn’t hurt that group. Instead, it is more of how quickly can that group get up to speed.
Guys like Jasir Cox (North Dakota State), Wesley McCormick (James Madison) and Marcis Floyd (Murray State) all have the potential to be big helps in West Virginia’s secondary. Assuming they develop and you add in Lee Kpogba (East Mississippi Community College) at linebacker to go along with Dante Stills and Tajh Alston up front and you have yourselves a pretty formidable defense.
On offense the weapons are there, and the offensive line returns their entire unit from last year. An improved showing from them, as well as better quarterback play, should help West Virginia’s offense significantly. With that comes more scoring chances, and more opportunities to win games.
Expect guys like Kaden Prather and Tony Mathis to take a big step forward with a larger role in this offense.
Not Beating Yourself
Over the past three seasons, West Virginia has lost seven games by one possession. If the Mountaineers are able to clean a few things up and close a game or two, their win total could really jump. However, if West Virginia is undisciplined and struggles to start games on offense, expect a win total closer to six.
The Mountaineers’ ceiling this season is nine wins, while the floor is six wins. Just making a bowl game at 6-6 would probably be seen as an underachievement for Brown in year four. This year, there has to be marquee wins. Wins you can sell to your fans, wins that are building blocks for the future.
Best Case/Worst Case Scenario
The best case scenario for the Mountaineers this season is JT Daniels proves he is worthy of the praise he has received. For West Virginia, best-case scenario would be starting the season 5-1, beating both Pitt and Virginia Tech on the road, while also beating Baylor at home. Heading into the month of November, if this team only has two losses and they are to a combination of either Pitt, Texas, or Baylor, then this team has set themselves up for a really interesting month of November. Daniels playing the full season and this defense developing under Jordan Lesley would lead the Mountaineers to a 9-3 season, with a shot at possibly appearing in the Big 12 Championship game.
Worst case scenario for the Mountaineers is they head into Baylor at 2-3, with wins over Kansas and Towson. Losing both rivalry games on the road and then losing to Texas seems nightmarish for the Mountaineers. Losing to Baylor to start 2-4 and 1-2 in conference play would be no help either. At that point, the Mountaineers would be lucky to even be bowl eligible, still having to face Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Worst case scenario includes the Mountaineers losing to Pitt, Virginia Tech, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma and finishing the year 5-7.
Photo by Bryan Dougherty
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